Friday, October 10, 2008

Getting Wet Beats Getting Burned

We needed the rain, but about 15,000 people participating in the Medtronic Twin Cities Marathon and TC 10 wished it would have held off a few hours. Two hours of steady rain made for a soggy race day. It didn't, however, prevent many runners from reaching the finish line. Over 13,500 runners crossed the finish line by putting one foot in front of another, not enjoying but not overwhelmed by the weather.

Contrast that to the daily headlines about the economy. 'Mortgage Market Meltdown'... 'Stock market Tumble'...'Confidence Crash'... Maybe our economic advisers could learn some lessons from runners.

  1. There is no shortcut to the finish line. Marathoners know that the race is 26.2 miles, and they need to cover the whole distance to receive the medal and their name in the results. People investing in the stock market seem to think that there is some shortcut to wealth, that it will occur quicker if they use hedge funds, derivatives, blah , blah , blah.
  2. Pace yourself. Marathoners learn quickly that starting too fast will lead to real problems at the end. Borrowers would be wise to look at Adjustable Rate Mortgages in the same light. The low early payments are far eclipsed by the pain as interest rates rise.
  3. Sometimes it rains. Runners in Minnesota know that race day can bring any kind of weather. Twin Cities Marathon has had beautiful days more often than not, but sometimes it's cold, sometimes it's hot and sometimes it rains. You need to be prepared to not only survive but thrive in any conditions. It seems that some investors in the stock market and some home buyers thought that markets could only go up, that there were not rainy days.
  4. Working together helps everyone. Marathoners flock to training groups for the support, and to pace groups for guidance. Even the leaders often pack together for much of the race, sharing the work of leading. In the markets, some people have gotten the idea that for their wealth to go up, they must push others down.
  5. Fair competition leads to fair results. Cheating in running races is a rare thing. Taking drugs, cutting courses and wearing another person's bib number do happen, but peer pressure and enforcement keeps it well in check. Contrast that to our local businessman who is alleged to have spent the last thirteen years as the beneficiary of an elaborate Ponzi scheme. Peer pressure probably made him want more personal wealth rather than checking his greed. Co-conspirators took their payments and kept their mouths shut. Enforcement only happened when one of them got a conscience.
Runners are not immune from economic distress, but something about running prepares you for both the good and the bad. For those that made it to the finish line, the finisher medal took on an even greater value. That value, unlike some of what is going on in financial world, is real, and cannot disappear overnight.

Perhaps the leaders of the bailed-out banks should have to finish a marathon before receiving their funds. That would be fun to watch. I hope it rains on race day.

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